Bajwa Doctrine: Why Pakistan has to Modify its National Security?
Believe it or not but Pakistan, a country of 200 million people, in the eye of the terrorism storm for the last three decades, has no National Security Policy. It even does not have a National Food Security, to feed its huge population, even though giving food alms is a common practice in this majority Muslim state. The lack of national action plan for countering extremism, establishing writ of law for giving economic growth, a generation is growing up which could further compound Pakistan’s troubles. In on-going war on terror, army recruited the youth from the martial races of Pakistan but they proved unimpressive. It forced the army to dig up the reason for this ineffectiveness. Bad governance has corrupted the whole system. The political order and parties failed to deliver. The deep state then comes forward to in an attempt to rescue the country by cleaning the mess.
The deep state is always working in the shadows. When government and political institutions fail to deliver, the deep state then steps in order to contain the damage. A new and a positive outcome in the armed forces as a result of fighting the tough anti-terror war is discouragement of nepotism in terms of promotion of officers. Professional soldiers are being promoted on the bases of competency. Army command in professional officers has strengthened the Pakistan army as an institution. Today Pakistan is facing a lot of internal and external challenges. Hybrid War is already upon Pakistan. In this backdrop, Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa has invented the Bajwa doctrine, lack of national security policy is a major impetus behind Bajwa Doctrine.
This doctrine offers a solution to various threats faced by Pakistan, with more emphasis on the hybrid threats to the sovereignty of Pakistan. The purpose of this write-up is to highlight the potential threats to the state of Pakistan with reference to Pakistan’s security mechanism in this new cold war.
Hybrid war refers to multi-modal war consisting of irregular, predictable and exceptional means for the state of conflict using fervor of asymmetrical warfare. It presents complicating factor for defense planning in the 21st century. Hybrid War seems new but America had implemented such warfare since the end of World War II. American President John F. Kennedy, 1962 spoke about such type of warfare as he said, "There is another type of warfare—new in its intensity, ancient in its origin — war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of by combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It preys on unrest.”
This multimodal warfare concept came in the subcontinent in the 70s as India borrowed this concept intentionally to use it against its traditional rivals; China and Pakistan. Pakistan has become the first victim of this warfare. India openly meddled in Pakistan’s in-house affairs intended to level ground for military invasion through fueling ethnic and linguistic conflicts by using manipulation tactics with propaganda and fake news. American Department of Defence (DoD) is assisting India in this new hybrid modifications in warfare designed to counter rising China through confronting Pakistan. In other words, the USA is backing India in order to balkanize South Asia to maintain unipolar hegemony. Now US-Indian nexus of hybrid war has become visible from Af-Pak border to Indo-Pacific Rim.
Water War: Water to replace oil and gas
A Russian professor at Tomsk Polytechnic University and chief researcher of the Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Stepan Svartsev, told TASS that water is a resource equal in value to oil, gas, and gold, and, sooner or later, we will start to sell it. We already sell it in stores and more and more people buy it. Water is becoming a commodity, and with time it will become more valuable than oil. We should be ready for this.
It is predicted that future wars will be fought over water and, unfortunately, all border disputes between the Asian nuclear triangular (China, India, and Pakistan) are based on water control reservoirs. Water control in an upstream area could be used as a double-edged weapon against downstream countries. The current geopolitical scenario in South Asia can easily describe how upstream countries are using this inhuman practice against downstream countries. As China is building dams on freshwater resources in Tibet, India is working on hundreds of hydropower projects and dams in Kashmir on Pakistani rivers. Unfortunately, India has the first control of all 6 Indus water rivers of Pakistan which provided massive strategic advantage to India against Pakistan.
Water has become a matter of survival for Pakistan as 70 percent population of Pakistan depends on freshwater for livelihood. Pakistan's water issues with India are about just as important as the resolution of the Kashmir conflict.
In fact, the two are interlinked. Therefore, the resolution of the water issue should be part and parcel of any process of normalization between India and Pakistan. The Dul Hasti Hydroelectric Project, Salal Hydroelectric Project, Uri Hydroelectric Project - I & II, Kishanganga Hydropower project, Baglihar, Bursar, Kirthai, Sawalkot, Nimoo Bazgo, Dumkhar & Chutak dams and Wullar barrage are disputed dams and projects between Pakistan and India and they are all built on the western rivers to which Pakistan has exclusive rights.
India is using water as a strategic weapon against Pakistan. It wants to turn green Pakistan into barren land. Unfortunately, our policymakers did not take this issue very seriously. We failed to build dams in the given timeline under the Indus Water Treaty. Unfortunately, now it has also proven that most political parties are also receiving foreign funds to run the state affairs. Such money uses to achieve the objectives of donors. Pakistan’s failure of not damming its rivers can be exemplified as the result of Indian Hybrid war over our water resources. Many Pakistan based political parties, leaders, and even media were funded by India to create and fuel disputes. Mega dam projects of Pakistan went to dustbin of disputes. As water issue has become a matter of survival for Pakistan, we have to take all necessary measures internally and internationally to save the agriculture of Pakistan.
Food security: Control the food, control the population
Food has become a tool to control people. If we look deep, we can easily unearth that global manipulators and Zionist behind control of world food. Many diseases were seeded with inorganic food by using harmful chemicals. Monsanto is the world biggest company in promoting genetically modified food. The GM food has become very dangerous not only for the human body but these crops also destroy the fertility of the soil. Most of the world nations are going to ban GM food and Monsanto.
Russia has become the world’s largest exporter of organic food. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, this company is working with the government of Punjab. Bacterium toxin seeds of cotton and Corn were introduced in Pakistan as there is a campaign among farmer community to grow genetically modified Bt Cotton and Bt Corn. Federal and provincial food security departments are oblivious to the long term damages to country’s upcoming generation. Even ministry of food security has failed to provide world recommended neutrinos to the citizens.
Biosafety is also directly connected with the food security but unfortunately, Pakistan’s national Biosafety Committee is inactive and it has failed to adopt procedures or measures designed to protect the population against harmful biological or biochemical substances. The rules of this committee were designed in 2005 and it miserably failed to meet the new evolving situation of the world, as the use of biological weapons/dangerous pathogen is becoming common phenomena in the world. Extension of Indian High-containment Laboratories can become disastrous for the population of sub-continent and especially for Pakistan as we share a common environment and water resources.
USA, UK, China, and Russia have given a preference to biosafety in their national security so need of time also demanded that Pakistan must take biosecurity seriously for the better protection of the environment and people.
Info-War: Forget Journalism, manipulation is a business now
The concept of Hybrid War in this modern century has enhanced the role of media in controlling people’s mind and behavior. It played a key role in color revolutions and regime changing events in world history. Even our own history is witness to the fact that the US used Pakistani media as a tool to change the perception of masses with manipulation for gaining the support intended to align Pakistan as a partner in the global war on terror. Secret fund of American state department was used in manipulating Pakistani minds. A close study would reveal that Pakistan media always sided with the west in global info-war.
German political scientist and journalist Udo Ulfkotte’s claims proved to be true as he exposed American influence on German politicians and media in his book Gekaufte Journalisten (“Purchased Journalists”), in which he describes how American and German politicians sway the German media, so that those journalists give the desired spin to world events. Ulfkotte claims that reporters are urged to tinge their writing primarily to favor the American position and to oppose Russia. In his interview translated and published by Oriental Review, he responded to one question about journalists’ corrupt practices in this way, “When you fly to the US again and again and never have to pay for anything there, and you’re invited to interview American politicians, you’re moving closer and closer to the circles of power. And you want to remain within this circle of the elite, so you write to please them. Everyone wants to be a celebrity journalist who gets exclusive access to famous politicians. But one wrong sentence and your career as a celebrity journalist is over. Everyone knows it. And everyone’s in on it.”
Approximately more than 2000 Pakistani journalists have visited America on the state department expense. This sponsorship shaped the Americanization of Pakistani newsrooms, which has given birth to the manipulation through fake news. Germans hate America like Pakistanis but on a world stage, Germany acted as a vassal state of the United State. The oligarch of Pakistan’s Independent media house, Mir Shakeel Ur Rahman, aka MSR, confessed on camera by responding to my question about manipulation through the fake news. He said, “Forget the journalism, manipulation is a business now and we will never give up this profitable business. MSR’s manipulation can easily be detected in Pakistan’s in-house affairs as he is chosen by global manipulators.
The emergence of multipolar (ploy-centric/post-West) world order has accelerated the trend of info-War between west and outside the western countries. Western dominance over global media has crafted the propaganda against the rising power centers of Asia. In this scenario, the role of Pakistan’s mainstream media is very crucial. Pakistan’s media is vibrant, powerful and influential. Russia and China are minimizing western dominance over mass media as they are encouraging realism over neo-liberalism.
I am not the supporter of “controlled media” concept as I always advocated for the freedom of the press which is protected by the constitution of Pakistan. But Pakistani journalists and all media houses stationed in Pakistan must have to read freedom of the press with the legal obligation of loyalty to the state and its institutions. Fair and unbiased criticism should be welcomed but foreign sponsored manipulation is not.
The shift of geopolitical economic order from west to east has accelerated the trade war in the world as multipolar world countries have boosted de-dollarization trend by trading in national currencies. Powerful emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Asia also called BRICS, are already teamed up to defeat World Bank with BRICS development bank while China is also leading the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as an alternative to Japan led Asian Bank. The American trade war on China is a crucial for Pakistan Economy as CPEC has become the flagship project of China’s Silk Road global strategy. The looming threat of American sanctions against Pakistan is something our traditional rival India is lobbying for to bog down Pakistan.
Unfortunately, Pakistani currency was also pigged to the US Dollar like other global currencies due to the invention of the ‘petrodollar system’ supported by the western economic institutions such as WB, IMF, and WTO. These economic institutions introduced new fixed exchange rate regime with Dollar. As a result whole world was made a fool with worthless paper currencies. Unfortunately, this “oil for dollars” system created the artificial American dominance around the globe due to demand for the US dollars. But with the passage of time, oil exporting countries realized that oil for dollars was a biggest global blunder by accepting worthless paper currency for their worthy oil. Russia raised a voice against this petrodollar system by introducing an ancient wisdom; trade in gold. Russia’s proposed Oil for Gold attracted many oil exporters. Today, Russia, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela appeared as a pressure group on OPEC. They have chosen their national currencies and gold for energy supply. Additionally, like other nations China and India as the biggest energy importers also given a preference to pay in their own currencies as now after trump trade war, China has introduced the Petro-Yuan concept in energy trade. This china’s smart move forced oil-rich countries to sell their oil to China in Yuan.
This emerging scenario of trade war created problems for Pakistan as the worth of our national currency is declining day by day. Although Pakistan’s surplus is in the dollar, therefore, Pakistan cannot take immediate steps to convert its currency on the gold or do international trade in Rupees. But China has provided a chance to shift its currency from an alternative to the dollar as it has signed national currency swap with Pakistan. So by taking the advantages of this partnership, Pakistan can easily switch to de-dollarization. Besides this currency manipulation, there is another tool used by global manipulators to create artificial contagion by gambling with targeted currency as was done once in 1997, money machine George Soros engineered the worst Asian Crises through buying Thailand currency. In this backdrop, Pakistan has to adopt retaliatory measures to avoid currency manipulation and to minimize effects of trade wars on its national economy.
As a part of the hybrid war strategy, cyber attacks were carried out worldwide. In fact, fight for the dominance over cyberspace has crafted the idea of controlling peoples mind through surveillance. The ‘Vault 7’ of Wikileaks is enough to reveal the scope of the CIA’s hacking capabilities and its control over mainstream and social media in the cyber world in which we are living. Fatefully, American Hybrid Wars allowed CIA to “weaponize” the technological devices all around the world by turning CIA into Cyber Military Force. As a matter of fact, the technological and electronic devices have become a very effective tool of surveillance. Mini spying devices in shape of microphone have been installed now in almost all electronic devices including TV and Phones. The Facebook is snooping on users in form of a smartphone to determine for targeted advertising and the use of FB Messenger on a smartphone can send videos through hacking the front camera. American control over Social media platforms has given spying advantages to the CIA. Now the new trend of selling the user’s data to military organizations is alarming, the recent expose on a big data-mining firm, should open everyone’s eyes.
The more alarming is that the CIA created UMBRAGE and related projects did not only increase the CIA capability of Cyber attacks but it also provided the opportunity to misdirect attribution by leaving behind the “fingerprints” of the enemy groups on which they require to blame the stolen data as Kim Dotcom summarized it in this way, “CIA uses techniques to make cyber attack look like they originated from enemy state. This is very dangerous as we can observe many cyber attacks inside America but they blamed it on Russia by inventing “Russia Hack”. They are blaming Russia because Russia is a potential threat to them.
The director of the Moscow Center of Geopolitics Leonid Savin highlights the geopolitics of Cyberspace as he says, “If the main trends are considered, then there is a major change in the field of Internet policy in line with which states are going to be divided into two camps. The first one is the global West, which insists on the Internet being universal (but under the control of the US as the inventor of the worldwide web). The opposed group of countries will try to defend their sovereignty, including in the Internet space".
American control over the worldwide web poses great threats, American military reliance on UAVs has intermingled cyber and electronic warfare as it is reported that it has developed small drones with target recognition features as the gizmo of cyber warfare. America, UK, and NATO are strengthening cyber forces to control/manipulate the world. In this emerging scenario, it’s time for Pakistan to secure and increase its cyberspace with the modification of tech world.
Cambridge Analytica scandal can be exemplified as a Data War on a cyberspace. All android applications and smart devices like Samsung appeared as data-collecting machines. Stolen data-trading with political and military campaigners can easily be observed as CA/SCL Group was removed from Facebook. Facebook, Google and all other social data platforms known can be termed as data collecting points. Big marketing companies and military organizations get data from them. Collected data of users is also used for advertisement and manipulation purposes.
But unfortunately, the new trend of hiring big data mining firms for political and military campaigns has become dangerous. The involvement of Britain based private military company SCL Group in political matters of the world countries should leave us shocked. This private British military group can be used as a tool of regime changes in many countries by using the collected data scientifically to change the public behavior in the favor of geopolitical objectives. We have seen this group’s influence in Ukraine to change the youth behavior, turning young Ukrainians supporter of neo-Nazism. The involvement of this controversial firm in Pakistan has become a fact. The emerging trend of changing behavior with data-mining techniques rings alarm bells for Pakistan’s sovereignty. It is the need of time to do a lot of work on it on a state level. Unfortunately, awareness about data privacy is zero in Pakistan. Our existing laws are unsatisfactory and unable to secure our privacy. Cyber and data protection laws are there but hardly implemented.
Pakistan has to take protective measures by constituting data protection rules So that any company anywhere must respect the data rights of Pakistani citizens. Pakistan has to regulate all social media platforms including Facebook and Google to prevent misuse. Pakistan has too sought rights to probe and to impose stiff penalties for misuse of its citizen’s data through data protection rules. All corporations should be legally bound to protect the data of Pakistani citizens. These companies have collected our addresses, telephone numbers, our NIC and biometric identification. Unfortunately, the breach of data from such companies has become a routine and users are unable to sue them for their data leakages due to unavailability of data protection act. The companies sell users’ data to advertisers and campaigners as we Pakistanis receive dozens of promotional messages daily on our cell phones.
The appliance of analytics on collected data has boosted the trend of psychological war. Data-mining firms use psychographic profiles to change the behavior of the targeted group. They know how to play and influence the targeted mind. NATO with the help of a private military group like CA/SCL has carried out Psychological Operations or PSYOP against Russia. Ukraine and Syria crises are two primary examples in this regard. This PSYOPS are planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objectives, reasonings and ultimately the behavior of organizations, groups, and individuals.
The world was hypnotized psychologically in the name of American war on terror. By taking the advantages of cyberspace and big-data, warmongering emotions were spread to keep world liberal order alive. Now the rise of the multipolar world challenges the western hegemony. Liberal warmongers have harvested the big-data of the world for psychological operations because influencing the public opinion by manipulating media is not enough now. US+MI6 supported CA/SCL group has stolen the big data of world nations, including collected data of countries voters with the aim to bring western puppet regimes in targeted states. More than 60 independent and sovereign states were destroyed directly and indirectly by Washington interference to usher the World Order with Western allies in this 21st century.
American defense planning of 21st century is based upon “America is the nation at war” doctrine intended to implement unipolar world order by any means possible.
Pakistan is also the victim of this so-called “America is the nation at war” doctrine. American regime change experiments can easily be seen in Pakistan. But now Pakistan’s voice for regional protectionism poses challenges to the western hegemony.
Pakistan is strategic fiber of Muslim world. Pakistan Army which also considers the Army of Islam has become a threat to the neo-liberalism. For the survival of any state, religion is necessary, while Pakistan is the country where Allah is the supreme. Pakistan always remains a target in order to weaken the deep state which is the last line of defence for the country. Unfortunately, Pakistan has not developed any proper mechanism to prevent such anti-state propaganda. The need of time demanded Pakistan to adopt immediate measures to repel the psychological warfare on Pakistan.
Culture wars: Realism vs. Liberalism
The culture war in the western world, especially in American political scenario can easily be observed between republicans and demarcates. American political map can be divided into Red and Blue states. Republicans are conservative with traditional religious values while demarcates lean toward liberal ideas. International relations between states have also been divided into realism and liberalism. The west sponsored neo-liberal socio and economic system is working for globalization and it is discouraging the national interests of individual states. Realism is very dominated in Pakistan’s internal and external affairs as its family norms, culture, civilization and religion roots are very strong. But western education system is a blatant attempt to impose neo-liberalism in state-affairs with the help of Media and NGOs.
Western-sponsored liberalism is targeting the traditional family system of Pakistan after wreaking havoc with in the western world.
According to my understanding liberalization was invented in Europe, during the Muslim/Arab rule over Spain (Europe). Jews helped Muslim to get victory over Spain and then they introduced the tendency of liberalism in Europe to replace religious faiths with liberal ideas. As result, we observed their victory in the shape of liberal order which ruled the whole world. The failing of liberal order and slow but steady rise of realism of multipolarity is trying to fill the vacuum.
Pakistan’s liberals have got tremendous strength as they have become a pressure group in country’s policymaking. They have a direct influence on the government and under the guise of democracy lovers; they launch attacks on country’s military and intelligence agencies. They have constructed a narrative by using western sponsored media and cyberspace that Pakistan must stay out of Afghanistan and make peace with India, even at Pakistan’s strategic expense. But Pakistani establishment is pragmatic, supports realism as it tries to preserves the country values, norms, culture and religion.
And this new wave of feminism in Pakistan will have far reaching consequences for women rights and family construct in the country. This newly launched idea of Feminism in Pakistan is a well-organized and well funded campaign to bring Pakistani woman out from the strong family wall, on to the streets and create disruption. Russia is using spiritualism to protect restore the family norms which were destroyed by liberalism and communism. Even China has banned western education in its country in an attempt to save China's ancient civilization. Most countries are protecting their traditions, cultures, religions and family taboos from this westernization/liberalization of the world.
Every country is free to secure its national interests but unfortunately, Pakistan is the country where divide has become visible between the military and political elite over the definition of national interests. Politicians and ruling regimes define it on the basis of liberalism while military establishment defines it on the base of realism. Realism always suits Pakistan as its traditional rival India encouraged realism domestically and globally. Pakistan, a country with different ethnic groups and nationalities, has to focus on the promotion of patriotism because it is resisting against the multi-modal war on many fronts from cultural boundaries to its national borders.
Hybrid war on Pakistan demanded to shield its air, sea, and land. For this purpose, it has to modify its national security doctrine including the protection of Pakistan’s ideology. The people of Pakistan remained under the exploitation by the state intuitions. Corruption, terrorism, political instability, and bad governance created dissatisfaction among people over the state and its intuitions. There is no quality of education and health in state-run schools and hospitals. All ruling political parties failed to upgrade the socio-economic life of people. Now hacking democracy with the manipulation of big-data increases the responsibility of Pakistan and its state institutions to protect Pakistan from such threats. Pakistan needs a patriotic shield to protect state’s cultural and territorial integrity.
In the name of democracy, the West has destroyed numerous countries. Current political scenario hinted that democracy in Pakistan has matured with the completion of second democratic peaceful transition of power. In this continuous democratic decade, state intuitions have been empowered.
The youth of Pakistan is currently aimless with no proper youth development program and completely out from any formulation of policy-making. Youth also can play a vital role to defuse foreign-funded/sponsored religious and ethnic conflicts. The youth is the only hope of better and progressive Pakistan.
Also in order to nip any attempt to create unrest, a new province within Punjab should be carved. It will create the balance of power within the federation and will also help to counter separatism and extremism. In other words, so-called greater Punjab, greater Balochistan and greater Pushtunistan movements and narratives can easily be killed through the balance of power within the federation.