CFR 2016 preventive survey: Who is the subject of the message?

The well-known globalist think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations, published a report on possible threats to U.S. hegemony in 2016. The study includes issues like political instability in the Middle East, the possibility of a Turkish war on Kurds, Russia etc.,  and is divided into three tiers  depending on the level of danger.

Tier 1 – events with a high impact on US security and with a high or moderate probability.

Tier 2 – events with a medium impact on the US security and a moderate probability, or events with a high impact on US security and a low probability.

Tier 3 – events with a low impact on US security and a moderate or low probability.

We attempted to examine this study from one particular point of view. We ask: these threats are threats to whom? Who is threatened, and who is the subject of the CFR message. The answers surprisingly reveals a lot about the CFR's nature.

Threats to the global elite

These threats include events that cause changes to world order but do not directly threaten the US mainland and its citizens, or Euro-Atlantic society. Unsurprisingly, the majority of threats mentioned in the CFR report fall in these categories:

Tier 1:

1.      A crisis with or in North Korea over, say, nuclear-weapons testing or political disarray in Pyongyang

2.      A deterioration in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict;

3.      Political disarray in Libya and Egypt;

4.      Iraq splintering further as a result of ISIS advances and Sunni-Shiite violence.

5.      Increased instability  and violence in Afghanistan

Tier 2:

1.      Increased internal violence and political instability in Pakistan, caused by militant groups

2.      Increased sectarian violence and political instability in Lebanon

3.      Intensification of fighting in Eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed militias

4.      Growing political instability and civil war in Jordan triggered by the Syrian civil war

Tier 3:

1.      Political instability in both Saudi Arabia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the growth of Islamist militancy in Russia and particularly in the North Caucasus region, spurred in part by Vladimir Putin’s military operations in Syria and the threat of Russian ISIS fighters returning home.

2.      Prospects for a major clash between India and Pakistan and a more profound crisis in post-Chavez Venezuela

3.      Violence in Nigeria related to Boko Haram,

4.      Political crisis and violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic.

5.      Sectarian violence between Buddhist and Muslims in Myanmar.

Threats to Euro-Atlantic society

This category includes factors that can seriously damage the security of North America and Europe, united today in one security system under NATO as the primary institution. These are:

Tier 1.

1.      Increased fighting between Kurdish groups and Turkish forces, aggravated by the Syrian Civil War

2.      High-casualty attack on an American ally.

3.      Political instability in EU countries stemming from the influx of refugees and migrants, with heightened civil unrest, isolated terrorist attacks, or violence against refugees and migrants

Tier 2.

Increased tensions between Russia and NATO countries that can lead to an unintentional or deliberate military confrontation

Threats to the US

This category includes factors the directly endangers the security of the American people and the US as a nation. There are:

Tier 1.

1.      High-casualty attack on the U.S. homeland;

2.      A major cyber-attack on U.S critical infrastructure

3.      Escalation of organized crime-related violence in Mexico with spillover effects on the United States

Tier 2.

1.      Potential confrontation between Iran and the US or their allies due to Iranian involvement in regional conflicts (first of all in Syria and Iraq).

2.      An armed confrontation between the US and the Chinese  in the South China Sea.


The majority of the threats mentioned in the CFR report do not primarily effect American society, there are no dangers for the US in its territory, except the improbable but still mentioned issue of a high priority direct attack on the USA. These are not threats to a subject limited by US boundaries, but for a global subject. It does not coincide with the US as a certain national entity. This transnational subject is a ruling global elite that uses the US as a base of its dominance.

Two of five direct threats to the US are linked with US interference in the zone of geopolitical interest of other states (Iran and China). At the same time, if we look at the map of expected conflicts we see that the US is much safer than other regions of the world.

What causes the threats to Euro-Atlantic society is the American regime change policy in the Middle East, especially in Syria, where Americans and their allies fueled the conflict and sponsored so-called rebels (actually terrorist groups). This report shows that the main problem for Europe today is American policy in the Middle East.  And CFR does not want to stop it The Middle East is declared to represent the greatest threat to American people than other regions of the world. In fact that means that policy to destabilise the region will continue.

The list of the threats demonstrates the globalist and estranged, un-American  nature of the CFR. They view America as a multi-dimensional entity where the US as a nation with its interests, is subjected to the US as a global subject. The main aim of such a structure is to guard the security of the interests of rootless elites, not the security of the American people.