Coronavirus and Trump's genetic mutation
Regarding the reduction in Corona virus spread, the first question in the United States is the impact of the virus on the 2020 presidential election, and to what extent the remnants of Covid19 can be the cause of Trump's defeat or victory in the upcoming election.
It is clear that Corona has influenced the 2020 election and even made a genetic mutation in Trump, as the drowsy and dumb Joe Biden was described as a calm and good man after a phone conversation with Trump. Even who believed that the Corona virus would not cause much trouble in the United States until yesterday, today admits that he learns a lot from this smart and invisible enemy.
Trump is also responding to his Democratic rivals and foreign partners in the Corona maze and the Democrats' media pressure. His response to Hillary Clinton, who said Russia wants to re-elect our next president, forced Trump, despite expressing his love for Russia and even Putin himself, for the first time in an unprecedented move to call an extremist pro-Russian group who believes in the supremacy of the white race and which was influential in the US election, a terrorist group.
Trump, who sees himself as the winner of the Corona pandemic realm in the field of national health, is trying to instill in the public opinion the policy of Russia's help satiety in order to win the election.
Corona's influence on the US public opinion on the election can also be predictable. The problems in people's personal and social lives may be so great that they forget that Trump is the first impeached president in American history to run for a second term, but Trump's irresponsibility at his club in Florida that did not take the Corona outbreak seriously, will never be forgotten by public opinion.
People in the United States know that with the mindset of first America and foremost normalizing the conditions that lead to carelessness, Trump underestimated the threat level of the virus and has always emphasized that the United States is capable of preventing, diagnosing disease, and providing medical facilities and equipment ranking first in the world and is confident of its government's ability to maintain American health.
The psychological effects of Corona's death on public opinion, which led to an imbalance in supply and demand, and serious decisions at the state and local levels, showed that people are not interested in Trump's remarks, which were a clear example of damage on public confidence in the government. This was demonstrated by the growing demand for weapons, which set a historic record in US social relations, and warned that if economic problems persist, social chaos is expected.
Social behavior has made it clear to the Trump administration that it has lost the opportunity to contain the epidemic, and that the White House Health Team must replace the propaganda for a prompt health response strategy with the policy of restraint and quarantine to eradicate Corona.
Different reactions from the US government and people eventually pitted the health team against the White House economic team, creating conditions that forced the White House to choose between saving the economy or saving the people.
The serious problem here is that the White House's final decision is based on saving the economy with short-term local quarantines.
To save the economy, there is a long-term plan with a $ 2,100 billion package, without considering the deep short-term effects of Corona, which is the largest high-risk compensation package in American history.
The impact of the Corona earthquake on the US government is becoming more apparent every day. With this support package, the White House intends to raise the hopes of the American people and corporations before the election that it has taken the necessary steps to ensure public health and protect the US economic system.
The White House does not intend to spend the package on short-term disposable expenses in the wage sector for the unemployed and the affected people. Planning is set take back the amount of $ 4,200 billion ( double the amount of given package) over the next three years by raising the stock price of bankrupt companies bought by the government, along with taxing jobs in the US Treasury. The package is intended to support large companies and banks, and over the course of three years, people will have to work hard and pay $ 4,200 billion out of their own pockets to compensate the corporations and the big banks damage.
The first part of injecting money is actually to buy stocks and debts of businesses that do not have much chance of recovery. The second part is the injection of money into individuals and families with human and social considerations, which, if the corona and the recession continues, not only will not return the financial aid, but also their financial needs due to continued unemployment or loss of their savings will increase.
Important parts of the US economy are in a state of stagnation. Continuing to reduce oil prices or stabilize oil prices to $ 40 or even $ 50 a barrel, the US main industries in various sectors including the aviation and aviation industry, the tourism industry, the oil and gas industry, the arms industry, the automotive industry and even the food industry that are all dependent on the oil revenues of oil-producing countries will face a serious recession due to the sharp decline in their oil revenues.
In the economic crisis of the 2008, the US government bought fallen stocks and revived most of the major companies and banks, such as General Motors, General Electric, Chase Morgan Bank, and Bank of America. Although this package is a repeat of 2008, it is fundamentally different. In the 2008 recession, the only problem was the economic problem, but today the problem of the costs associated with maintaining and restoring health to the American people requires financial and support packages more than the amounts provided. At the same time, it seems unlikely that European countries and Saudi Arabia, which in those years provided their financial and economic resources to the US economy without hesitation, will now accept the risk of US economic recovery. Even if they accept that they are taking such a risk, it is not clear whether they will have the necessary political and economic capacity under the influence of Corona's damage. The belief in the success of this 2100 billion package with about 7 million unemployed and the resignation of more than 2,000 senior executives of large companies is far from expected.
If Corona puts the US economy in recession, with a rapid contamination of the corona, the recession will shift its effects to major economic and political fields in other parts of the United States and around the world, and will push the international system into conflict between countries and imposes its destructive effects on global stability and international mechanisms where the US has a lot of influence on them.
In the United States, the 2020 election will be held in six months. If Trump does not restore public confidence and overcome the semi-closed economy and rising unemployment and also the global order turmoil, the world faces multilateralism based on mutual cooperation and imposes conditions that shape the evening of the US global leadership and global hegemony.