Optimistic on Sino-US trade Talks
China and America are two big economies and contribute a lot to the global economy. The US is a big country with a population of 327 million (in 2018), Total area 9,833,520 km2, the GDP (PPP) Per capita $62,869 and shares to the global economy is 23.6%.
While China, the second-largest economy, with a population of 1.4 Billion (in 2016), Total area 9,596,961 km2, the GDP Per capita $19,520 and share with the global economy is 15.5%.
Both nations are the biggest trading partners and inter-dependent on each other. While looking after their own interests, yet supporting and complimenting each other too.
On October 4, 2018, Vice President Mike Pence delivered a major speech on the administration’s policy towards China at Hudson Institute. Which initiated Trade-War between the US and America. The US imposed a tariff on Chinese products worth 250 Billion. China tried its best to resolve differences and wave-off such heavy tariff. China observed a lot of restrains and patience, till the last. China tried its best to convince the American counterparts to not to impose irrational tariffs. China observed patients and showed a lot of flexibility. When, China was left with no option, except reciprocating in a similar manner.
Both the big countries have the responsibility to play a vital role in strengthening the global economy as well as global peace and stability. But unfortunately, a trade war broke-up in 2018, when the US imposed high tariffs on Chinese products. Unfortunately, the tension between China and the US was not stopped at that stage but kept on growing on other fronts too. Like American sanctions of Chinese Companies in high-tech areas, Restrictions on Visa for Chinese students, Visa restrictions on Chinese intellectuals, Scientists and especially on teachers of Confucius centers. The latest visa restriction on Chinese officials from Xin Jiang Province has even worsened the situation.
One-third of foreign students in America is from China, it may harm Chinese students, but may harm American Universities even more. The imposition of tariff on Chinese products may harm the Chines companies, but harmed American common man even more. As the hike in consumer products has made the life of common man tough, especially the middle-class who were not earning high and were depending on low-cost Chinese products for their basic needs.
In the 1980s and 1990s, many American companies entered China to capture the huge market of 1.4 trillion. According to the U.S-China Business Council report, 97 percent of the U.S. companies surveyed reported profits from doing business with China. Trade with China saved 850 dollars for every U.S. family on an annual average, and U.S. exports to China alone supported over 1.1 million American jobs from 2009 to 2018. But China gradually developing its manufacturing sector and kept increasing its exports. China-focused on its up-gradation of technology and the quality of its products. Chinese Investment in Educational Sector has resulted in an increased in Research and Development Infrastructure and Human Resource. With the passage of Time, Chinese R&D improved tremendously and reach a matured state. Chinese products were of good quality yet at a very much competitive price. Due to the abundance of Raw materials available indigenously, huge workforce, and indigenous technology, the cost of production was reduced to make Chinese exports unbeatable in the international market. Within only a couple of decades, America became the market for China and China enjoys a trade surplus of around 400 billion US Dollars.
China is a big country with a huge population, with a relatively very big domestic market. Chinese development is more visible on its coastal line, but the interior rather needed more investment to develop and provides a huge space for China to invest inside China and generate more demand domestically. A china-us trade war might have harmed China too, but being a huge market can compensate domestically. But Americans suffered much more. China is an emerging economy and might generate more demand for its domestic need and overcome the trade loss due to the China-US trade war.
China launched a mega initiative of BRI, in 2013, which includes 150 countries, regions and international organizations. Under the BRI, China is engaged in development projects in almost 87 countries. China has a big market under BRI initiatives. In fact, BRI is an initiative of infrastructure developments, improve connectivity, improve people-to-people contact, harmonizing cultures and promoting understanding among nations. It will definitely promote trade and the rapid development of economic activities. China enjoys an additional edge under the BRI regime.
On 24 October 2019, Vice President Mike Pence delivered remarks at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars about the future of the U.S. relationship with China as both countries work to resolve their outstanding differences over trade. While a deal is expected and some understanding is reached already. But such sentiments, expressed by Vice President seems inappropriate, especially at this critical moment, when negotiations are underway to improve US-China trade relations. While the world has high expectations from ongoing negotiations, negative remarks may harm talks.
China might have its own pint of view and might have some complaints too. But Chinese wisdom lies in not to be aggressive in exposing their differences in such critical moments when both sides are negotiating to resolve issues. China is sincere and willing to resolve all differences peacefully. Chinese approach and behaviors are mature and responsible, as well as their intentions are to overcome issues.
“Chinese and U.S. economic and trade teams have maintained close contact and are making smooth progress on the negotiations, a spokesperson with the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday. The two sides will continue to advance consultations as planned, and the Chinese and U.S. chief trade negotiators will hold a phone conversation again on Friday, said the spokesperson” reported by Xinhua News Agency.
While China in pursuance of its centuries-old wisdom “Peaceful Development” may move forward unilaterally and avoid any confrontation with any other nation. But other nations also may think rationally and respect Chinese tolerance and flexibility and may reciprocate accordingly.
China is struggling sincerely to diffuse tension with all other nations, especially with the US and willing to resolve all differences. China is struggling for durable peace and stability in the whole world and willing to cooperate with all other nations for sustainable developments. There are signs of some understandings and a deal may be concluded shortly. Anti-China sentiments by Vice President Pence may not be considered very appropriate and may harm the negotiations. This is not the right time to express such sentiments and may have been avoided.
The way forward is only, respecting each other and extending cooperation. Chinese approach of the “win-win” deal is the best available option. It will be in the best interest of both countries the US and China, and may also be in the best interest of global peace, stability, and prosperity. I am quite optimistic that Sino-US trade talks will smooth. Both sides will show flexibility and rational behaviors. It will be productive and will reach a comprehensive deal soon.