Polish Trace of the Would-be Belarusian Maidan
President Alexander Lukashenka is of course right in pointing to Poland as one of the places from which at least inspiration and logistical help, if not directly co-organization of the recent riots in Belarus, came from. The only open question is whether the Polish authorities were directly involved in the entire operation, or whether they merely accepted the activities commissioned to Poles by external, of course, Western centres.
This second scenario seems more probable, with particular attention being paid to the special alliance made in the attempt to destabilize Belarus. Literally hand in hand, coordinating and participating in this action together – there came representatives of the Polish agendas of George Soros' movement, as well as groups oriented towards supposedly more conservative circles of American politics. So, it turned out that whether the Americans, or the European Union, or Trump or Soros pays - they all have one goal in common: the Ukrainization of Belarus.
Democratic-Nazi Soros Alliance
As an active journalist, I must add that since many weeks there has been a significant revival in the Polish editorial offices not only constantly working in the eastern politics section. The mainstream media related to the Soros camp openly recruited "volunteers" to go to Belarus - not to observe the elections, but (as the case was straightforward) to take part in the overthrow of President Lukashenka right after the vote. We are talking about the same people who previously took part in the events of the Euromaidan in Kiev in 2014, and then served in the so-called volunteer battalions during the Nazi-Ukrainian attack against Donbass. They are not people who hand out leaflets and "give spiritual support", but shoot demonstrators in the back, produce "innocent victims of the bloody regime" and similar provocations proven in Ukraine. Besides, we are dealing here with an interesting pragmatism of the involved circles. Here the professional democrats use the officially condemned Nazis without hesitation, and those, so rebellious and anti-systemic, turn out to be paid by Soros and so on.
At the same time, regardless of sending dirty job specialists, "meat" was recruited - naive, adventurers, young people associated with the main Polish parties, as if planning in advance that they would pose as "poor Polish youth brutally captured and beaten by OMON". So, the entire theatre that we had to deal with in recent days was planned in advance. So, why has it failed? Why did the calls to "overthrow the tyrant" sound almost exclusively on Western television only, not on the streets of Minsk?
Where has the Bucks for the Revolution Gone?
Of course, we can only guess the reasons. Of course, the most important thing was the determined attitude of the Belarusians themselves and the rational response of the authorities, anticipating any possible threat. However, even the actions of the "opposition" themselves were clearly weak, artificial and disorganized. There was clearly a lack of fuel - and no ideological one. I was in Kiev in 2013 and 2014 for the Euromaidan, I saw the money of Poroshenko and others that was used to pay for those who sat there in tents. In Minsk, someone clearly saved - or the money for the coup had dissolved in the pockets of intermediaries, including Polish ones.
Indeed, the Kiev Euromaidan looked no less, but even more pitiful than those Minsk shakes. And it was also possible to disperse it not in two days, but in two hours - if then the Western countries had not become directly involved, actually carrying out a political invasion of Ukraine and forcing known changes to the authorities. Fortunately, this was not the case in Belarus (yet), someone evidently hesitated about such a zero-one conflict with President Lukashenka. Russia also behaved much more sensibly than 6 years ago, as it already understands what geopolitical threat would be the Ukrainization of another neighbour.
The Threat of the "Round Table"
In addition, we know that youth, the working class, crying mothers, social groups, and even entire societies - these are just objects of history. The economic interest of the politically dominant social class is of key importance. The only real problem for President Lukashenka could be betrayal within the ruling camp.
Although there is no oligarchy in Belarus, there is a functional counterpart - a bureaucratic and managerial top, which may look with envy at the enfranchisement of similar circles Poland, Ukraine, and previously in Russia. It is a society potentially susceptible to a simple deal with the West: control of the state for a share in the national wealth (even if a transitional one, as in Poland, Romania, etc., where the enfranchised nomenclature turned out to act only as an intermediary for Western capital, and the oligarchic class did not come even close to the Russian or Ukrainian level). Such changes are usually given the appearance of "round tables", "internal democratization", etc. - but the meaning is the same as the so-called transformation in the countries of the former Eastern Bloc or the coups in Bucharest and Kiev. And this threat still seems to hang over Belarus.
Independent Belarus - the Most Important Element of Central European Geopolitics
What remains unsettled is another Polish trace, the re-use of the name of Poland in an external mercenary operation having the features of a coup d'état. And such actions are punishable even under the Polish Penal Code. The fact that the Polish Government clearly has no intention of condemning, not speaking about punishing Polish citizens for participating in acts of political terrorism in Belarus (as before in Ukraine) - must therefore be recognized as an admission of guilt.
It is all the more shocking as the raison d'etat of Poland makes it absolutely necessary to support an independent, stable Belarus and to look after the interests of the Polish minority living on its territory - and the only guarantee of achieving both of these goals is the presidency of Alexander Lukashenka. Thus, both the Polish government and the interest groups operating from Poland stood up against Belarus as foreign agents, hostile to both Belarusian and Polish interests.