Russia vs Ukraine: war is always possible, so never say "never"
Boris Nad (Serbia): After a series of provocations, Ukraine declared a state of war. The DNR was again attacked, in the Azov Sea there was a conflict between the Ukrainian army and the Russian forces. Is it possible to war Russia and Ukraine and who such a war really desires and plans?
Alexander Dugin: Russia has no interest in war. I think the present escalation is fully staged by Poroshenko who wants to somehow improve his image in front of coming elections. His ratings are very low. So tries to impose martial law in order to radicalize situation. I don’t think that Trump would support Poroshenko but some circles in the West that tries to continue anti-Russian strategy have promised to Poroshenko certain help.Certainly any real confrontation with Russia will cost Ukraine new territories, but Poroshenko and his masters in the West don’t care. If the manage to discredit Russia more they can easily sacrifice other parts of Ukraine. Saakashvili paid with parts of Georgia. Poroshenko can do the same with other parts of Eastern Ukraine. But starting the real war can indeed save his future Presidency. Russia will try to avoid that at any price.
B.N.: How will the situation in the former Ukraine develop in the coming months, in your opinion?
A.D.: Everything depends now on one thing: whether West or some serious forces in the West help Poroshenko or abandon him. Without some commitments on the NATO’s side Poroshenko could not start real war. But not starting it will damage his image more. So he has put himself in awkward situation. He is existentially interested in war – it is only condition of his political survival. Otherwise he will be defeated.
B.N.:Is it possible for the scenario of "reintegration" of rebellious Russian republics in Ukraine, according to a recipe according to a recipe that the authorities of Zagreb proposes to - a recipe for the Croatian "Storm", which forced and massacred the Serbian population in Croatia?
A.D.:With Putin in Kremlin it is quite impossible. Without Putin everything can happen. The Russian help for Republics of Donbass is sufficient to prevent any solution based on force. So Ukrainians can dream about such issue, it just impossible.
B.N.:At the same time, the relations between Belgrade and the provisional authorities in Pristina are intensifying. Provocations, including actions of special forces from Pristina, have become everyday. What can Belgrade do at all?
A.D.:There is only one solution for Vucic: propose to Putin to join Eurasian Union. If Putin accepts, the Kosovo will be Russian headache, if not Vucic can show to Serbs than he has done everything that he could but being abandoned by Russian there is only one issue – accept the loss of Kosovo and join EU. But without proposal to save situation with Russian help there is no solution. With all the EU and NATO on the side of Albanians in Kosovo nobody can come to Serbs. All that has already happened with other part of Greater Serbia… It is tragic situation… But Vucic should try it. Otherwise he is doomed too.
B.N.:Today there are two open fronts: in Syria and Ukraine. Is it possible to open the third front - in the Balkans? Especially after the events in Montenegro, Kosovo and Macedonia - maybe soon the new crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A.D.:It is possible. But Russia is not in the good state to be involved now. The inner problems in Russia grow. Putin is surrounded by sixth column – pro-Western liberals that almost totally destroyed the economy and social politic. Putin is not ready to be open third front. He will try to avoid it at any cost. I agree that situation is more and more difficult. If something starts the reaction of Russia can theoretically follow. Modern Russia is not Russia of Eltsin. But Putin will intervene only in extreme situation. But the West is today as well much weaker than in 90-s. The globalism obviously failed and there is growing division between NATO States themselves. So if something happen – in Macedonia or Bosnia – the results can be unpredictable. Third front can be open without Russians but it is too dangerous. The Donbass people decided to go ahead and failed to get sufficient amount of Russian help. So nobody can manipulate Putin: he decides – often in right way, sometimes he makes errors (as in Ukraine) but one thing is certain: nobody can make him to do what he doesn’t want to.
B.N.:The European Union is in deep crisis. The EU is no longer an attractive model. There is an additional requirement for Serbia: the recognition of an independent Kosovo. The insistence of the government in Belgrade on European integration, under such circumstances, becomes absurd. Do you expect a turning point in Belgrade's policy?
A.D.:Turn away from EU as Turkey did for example would be quite logic. But Serbia is in very difficult state after such huge tragedies of 90-x – and huge losses… So I thing Serbs are paralyzed. That explains why Vucic and his people still continue to speak about EU. It is a kind of groggy state in box -- after hard blow boxer looses the capacity to think, to orientate, to act. And there were so many disappointments in efforts to create patriotic alternative… May be the growth of populism in Europe that can one day overthrow EU as such will help to Serbs to wake up. It is tragic situation…
B.N.:There is a real uprising in France. Germany is, at the very least, in a deep political crisis. What future, in your opinion, is expected by the EU?
A.D.:I’d personally would prefer to save EU with deep reformation in order to create the independent from USA conservative European Empire based on continental geopolitics and Franc-German-Italian-Spanish Alliance. But that is a kind of dream totally broken by reality check. The actual European elite can do nothing. It is totally engaged in radical liberalism and it is going to die. With that elite EU will die also. But the future is not happy – most likely we will see the return of old European nationalism that can easily provoke the new civil war in Europe. Europe is on the brink of abyss. And full responsibility for this lies on liberals, globalists and men as Soros as well as persons like Macon or Merkel.
B.N.:The political divisions in the United States are also gaining ground.
A.D.:Yes. The civil war can easily start there also. Trump tried to prevent it but he is limited by the state of thing in the society. His election campaign was brilliant, but he can hardly fulfill any moment of it. He promised to stop interventions, to make peace with Russia, to concentrate on domestic affairs, but he is busy with second hand atlanticist geopolitics in the line of neocons… I believed in Trump and I am disappointed by him. But nevertheless he is better that crazy bloody witch who openly despises her people calling it “deplorables”… So inner conflict in USA is quite possible.
B.N.:You're working on your own, in my opinion, capital work, under the heading "Noomahiа". In it you paid attention to Slavic and Serbian Logos? Can you say something more about this?
A.D.:I have already published two volumes on East European civilization and the part is dedicated to Serbian Logos. I have discovered that Serbs are essentially warriors. That is the heritage of White Serbia and the ancient history – it seems that Sarmatian factor played here important role. But Serbs have settled in the Balkan region where long before first indo-europeans prevailed ancient matriarchy – the civilization of the Great Mother – its rests we see in Lepenski Vir, Vincia and so on. So there is hidden influence of Logos of Cybele in Serbian tradition as well.
I think that Kosovo battle and the epic choice of king Lazar is key to Serbian identity: Serb is that who prefers the glorious death for Orthodox faith and Serbian motherland to any richness and gifts from the enemy. So I think Serbs are not only people… You Serbs are a kind of mystical community, a Church of king Lazar devoted to the Kosovo as eternal example of loyalty, will, dignity and special kind of purely Serbian sanctity… All that I tried to explore in Noomakhia dedicated to Slavs and to Balkan civilization as such.
By the way I have discover that it is wrong to represent Balkans as periphery of Europe. In some sense it is cradle of European peasantry and it is European peasantry that is responsible for many crucial elements of European identity… So I would be happy if my new books would be translated in Serbian as the other that are already translated and published in my beloved country.
B.N.:Russian President Vladimir Putin recently issued a frightening warning: if the United States attacks Russia with nuclear weapons, it will come to mutual destruction. But some will go to paradise as martyrs, and some will simply quit because they will not have time to repent. Are we now on the edge of the Third World War?
A.D.: The observation of human history teaches us: war is ALWAYS possible. So never say never. We need to accept it as a matter of fact. When we take the possibility of war seriously we try with all responsibility to avoid it. But the price of peace should never be the betrayal. That is the covenant of king Lazar. Putin just reminded to the West that Russians will be fight to death if the West tries to challenge us. It was always so in our history. And it will be repeated if necessary. It is better to take Putin’s words seriously. It is Russian way of life and death. Don’t provoke us, or you’ll repent. And Putin has announced exactly what we all Russians think.