Will the EU-US trade war provoke the belated reaffirmation of European sovereignty?

16.08.2020

Europe would be suffering from an acute identity crisis aggravated by the triumph of Brexit and by the “European balkanization process” devised by the US through selective terrorist attacks, the refugee crisis, the application of tariffs and the awakening of the desire for independence of the European Nations without a State to provoke the appearance of centrifugal forces that accelerate the dismemberment of the current European Union, leaving in the hands of Macron and Merkel the enormous task of reaffirming European sovereignty and building a new geopolitical architecture in Europe.

Will Europe lift sanctions on Russia?

The mutual imposition of sanctions between the EU and Russia after the Ukraine crisis would mark the beginning of the division in the once monolithic position of the EU countries towards Russia. Thus, in retaliation for the sanctions imposed by the EU in 2015, Moscow responded with an embargo to European agri-food products that would have had as collateral effects estimated losses of € 150 million per day according to the leader of the Italian Northern League, Matteo Salvini and a total amount of more than 100,000 million, sanctions that have an expiration date after Russia lifts restrictions on the import of beef from the EU. According to data from the EC itself, exports to Russia from the EU would have fallen from € 120 billion in 2013 to € 90 billion in 2018 and, consequently, a current led by Italy, Finland, Germany and France would have emerged that would be supporters to suspend sanctions against Russia while on the antinomic shore, we would have Poland, Great Britain and the Baltic States as champions of continuing to implement these sanctions in the near future.

The US-Russia energy pulse in Europe

The Russian-German coalition of interests devised the Nord Stream project that will connect Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, with a maximum transport capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year and valid for 50 years. This route is considered vital for Germany and the Nordic countries, which is why it has been declared of "European interest" by the European Parliament, disastrous for US geopolitics and crucial for the Russian energy geostrategy since with this route the energy clamp would be closed Russia by ruling out the Baltic Republics and Poland as transit territory, also ruling out the BTC pipeline of Clintonian affiliation. Russia will thus achieve its dual geostrategic objective of ensuring an uninterrupted flow of gas to Europe through two alternative routes and making both Ukraine and the Baltic Republics “energy islands” along the way.

However, the unequivocal objective of the US is to replace Russian European energy dependence (30% of the gas imported by the EU from Russia) with fracking dependence, flooding the European market with LNG (natural gas that has been fracked in the USA and transported by gas ships) to sink Russian gas prices. Another objective would be to promote the use of the fracking technique in all the countries of Eastern Europe, the so-called "European fracking arc" that would extend from the Baltic countries to European Ukraine, passing through Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria and that will depend on the technology of American companies such as Chevron or Shell.

Consequently, after presenting the US Senate a draft amendment introducing new economic restrictions against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (gas pipeline with a total length of 1,200 km that will transport Russian gas directly to the Baltic to Germany), the EC took the decision to review said Russian-European collaboration project under the pretext that "said gas pipeline could strengthen the EU's dependence on Russian gas and consolidate Gazprom's dominant position in the European market". Poland aspires with its two terminals to become the main distribution center for imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) in European territory and would have managed to paralyze the construction of the aforementioned gas pipeline, which would be a missile on the water line of the energy policy designed by the Government of Angela Merkel so that we could attend the strengthening of the Paris-Berlin Axis that will end up drawing a new European cartography on the horizon of 2025.

Will the EU-US trade war provoke the belated reaffirmation of European sovereignty?

The foreseeable implementation by the United States of tariffs on European automobiles will provoke a belated reaffirmation of European sovereignty by France and Germany, which will be the genesis of a new European project (Europe of the Seven), made up of France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Luxembourg and Austria, leaving the rest of peripheral European countries (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus) gravitating in their orbital rings. The rest of the countries of central and eastern Europe, (members of the so-called emerging Europe), which would extend from the Baltic countries to European Ukraine, passing through Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will pivot in the area US influence These countries will be the battering ram that the US will use to replace Russian European energy dependence (30% of the gas imported by the EU from Russia) by fracking dependence, flooding the European market with LNG (natural gas fracked in the USA and transported by gas ships) to sink Russian gas prices as well as boost the use of the fracking technique in these countries, (the so-called “European fracking arc”), which will depend on the technology from US companies such as Chevron or Shell, not being ruled out a new Balkan War that will be a new local episode within the return to the recurrent endemism of the Cold War between the US-Russia.