US war against North Korea: prospects and consequences

14.04.2017

The United States is ready to launch a preemptive strike against the DPRK. This is reported by the American media with reference to sources in the intelligence community. The reason for the strike may be the next nuclear test of North Korea, which is likely to be held this weekend. They will be timed to the so-called "Day of the Sun" - the birthday of the founder of the Kim dynasty - Kim Il Sung - April 15.

US Forces

The USS Carl Vinson is at an air strike distance from the alleged nuclear test site. It is also reported that in 300 miles there are two destroyers with cruise missiles "Tomahawk" on board. In addition, the United States has the most powerful military groups in South Korea and Japan. Also, the armed forces of South Korea and Japan can also join the conflict.

North Korea's Response

The military conflict with the DPRK is fraught not only with the possible use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan, but also by the fact that the North Korean army, with the help of conventional weapons, can inflict a massive artillery strike against Seoul.

Factors influencing US actions

The speediness of US actions in North Korea will depend on several factors: the time needed to deploy the necessary forces and means, persuading South Korea and Japan to assist the allies (Japan  by declaring that DRK can launch chemical attack against them shows that it is ready), the position of China and the sentiments of the North Korean leadership itself. It is impossible to exclude the factor of treachery in the ranks of the leadership of the DPRK. Perhaps the US hopes that military blackmail may lead to a regime change in North Korea.

Recall that the United States last week deliberately exacerbates relations with the DPRK. The war in Korea and the change in the North Korean regime can become a way out for Trump from a difficult internal political situation due to a "small" victorious war. In addition, part of the Trump administration views the conflict with North Korea as an alternative to the escalation of tension in Syria, as a result of which the United States can reach out to the prospects of a war with Russia.

Consequences of the conflict

A possible conflict in the DPRK can seriously change the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. A regional large-scale war in the event of a US victory (and this is the most likely outcome) will lead to a sharp decline in China's political weight in the world arena. United Korea, which will be for the most part in the ashes will become even more dependent on the United States and will no longer be an economic competitor to the United States and Japan. Even if the Kim's regime falls peacefully, the North in the economic plan can become an unbearable burden for Seoul. Japan, despite the possibility of using weapons of mass destruction against it, will strengthen its positions in the region and finally break with post-war "pacifism", Abe's "right turn" will strengthen in domestic and foreign policy. At the same time, in the face of the Chinese threat, the country of the rising sun will be forced to strengthen its alliance with the United States.

The main risk for the US is the war with China. However, unlike conflicts in the Middle East, the United States will not receive as a result of aggression in Korea, an additional headache in the form of complexities of nation building, mass guerrilla movement or the strengthening of radical Islam. The responsibility for the nation building and the subsequent development of North Korea lies on the shoulders of the south, and not on the US as it might be in Syria.